eMarketer: Top 10 Predictions for 2009


The firm recently identified (via Marketing Charts) the following key trends for 2009:

1. The Internet is a Buyers’ Market: Marketers will continue to stretch their budgets by making use of cost-efficient online ad placements. Lower prices for most display ads and less competition for many search keywords will make online a buyers’ market.

2. Search Marketing Remains Recession-Resistant: While search marketing is not recession-proof, it is recession-resistant, with estimated spending growth in 2009 at 14.9%, to $12.3 billion. While search advertising will grow less in 2009 than in any previous year, its inherent strength means greater spending gains than for any other major form of advertising, whether online or traditional media.

(view chart of U.S. search advertising spending, 2007-2013)

3. Video Ad Spending Will Run Counter to Economic Trends: Growth will run counter to overall economic developments, rising by 45% in 2009 to reach $850 million.

(view chart of U.S. online video advertising spending, 2007-2013)

4. Social Network Shakeout: With U.S. ad revenue growth slowing, smaller and niche social networks will have a tough time gaining traction and several may close down or be acquired by larger players. Marketers that have built standalone social networks tied to their brands will either shutter them or migrate them to existing social network platforms where they can reach a broader audience.

5. New Revenue Streams for Social Networks: E-commerce will be a growing revenue stream for social network sites. Expect both MySpace and Facebook to enhance their self-serve advertising systems to allow consumers and businesses to buy and sell real-world goods and services.

6. E-Commerce Sales Growth From Existing Online Buyers: Online retail sales (excluding travel) will grow by only 4% in 2009 – the first full year to feel the impact of the economic crisis. Over the long term, online sales growth has been on a downward slope as the number of online buyers approaches saturation.

7. Seismic Shift in TV Ad Sales: U.S. TV ad spending will decline 4.2% to $66.9 billion in 2009. This precipitous drop in spending reflects not only expectations of a continued poor economy but a seismic shift in the way television advertising is bought and sold, eMarketer said.

8. More Newspaper Companies to Tank: Newspaper advertising will decline in 2009 more than any other medium. Industry-wide cutbacks will continue, and there will be some consolidation, while firms will be forced to undertake drastic measures to stay afloat.

9. User-Generated Content Aggregation: With so much user-generated media populating the web and mobile channels, content aggregation will become more important than ever. In 2009, expect to see the emergence of real-time aggregation tools that combine algorithmic approaches with human input. These aggregation tools will develop from the ground up, much like the content itself.

10. Multicultural Marketing Will Gain Intensity Online: Although white Americans make up about 70% of the U.S. internet population, more and more African Americans and Hispanics are going online through their PCs and mobile phones. Marketers will follow with language- and culture-specific messages.

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